New Zealand interest rates
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is New Zealand's base interest rate, set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). When it moves, mortgage rates, savings rates and business lending all follow, usually within weeks.
On a $500k, 30-year mortgage that's about $2,962 a month, vs $2,234 at the Apr 2021 low of 3.46%. Work out your own repayments
OCR vs inflation, 2015–present
The Reserve Bank raises the OCR when inflation threatens the 1–3% target band, and cuts when the economy needs support.
*Click on the indicator key to hide or show indicators
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Stats NZThe Real Economy (opens the full chart page)
Where are New Zealand interest rates heading?
This site doesn't forecast interest rates. The Reserve Bank publishes its own projected path for the OCR in each Monetary Policy Statement. What the live data here can show is the pressure the Bank is weighing when it decides.
Where the OCR sits now
It has been at this level since Sep 2026, when the Reserve Bank raised it from 2.50%.
As of Sep 2026
Inflation vs the 1-3% target
Above the 1-3% band the Reserve Bank must aim for - the kind of reading that holds it back from cutting.
As of Sep 2026
Where inflation is expected to be
Businesses and forecasters expect inflation two years out to sit above the 2% midpoint the Bank aims for. The Bank watches this closely, because expected inflation tends to feed into wages and prices.
As of Sep 2026
These are some of the inputs the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee weighs at each review, alongside jobs, growth and global conditions - so no single signal decides the next move.
What this means
- Banks don't lend at the OCR: they lend at a margin above their own funding costs. Fixed mortgage rates follow wholesale swap rates, which is why they sometimes move before the OCR does.
- Each 1 percentage point change in a mortgage rate shifts the monthly repayment on a $500k, 30-year loan by roughly $300–330.
- When the OCR rises, mortgage holders feel it as their fixed terms roll over: the pain arrives in waves over 12–24 months, not all at once.
Every figure on this page (the Official Cash Rate, 2-year fixed mortgage rate, 10-year government bond yield, 6-month term deposit rate and 2-year inflation expectations) is live, verified through a manually-entered, audited fallback while automated RBNZ access is pending.